International Energy Agency

By | April 27, 2013

The growing global demand for energy will cause a supply crisis in 2015 that will prevent slow down climate change, according to the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). As consequences of this crisis, the IEA points out the increase in the price of oil, which could reach the amount of 159 dollars per barrel, and the growth of emissions of greenhouse gas, that will lead to a rise in global temperature of the planet aged between five and six degrees by 2030. The dominant economic and production model identifies wellness with expansion and this with a greater demand for energy. But new global consumption trends, led by emerging powers, such as China and India, threaten energy security and accelerate the destruction of the environment. The development of these countries is transforming the global energy system as a result of the progressive importance are gaining in international markets. Developing countries represent 47% of the market in 2015 energy overall and more than 50% by 2030. At present, it is 41%. In 2007, China aims to become the largest emitter of global energy and, in 2010, as the largest consumer.

The Asian country has also become the main source of emissions of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, surpassing USA. India will become the third emitter of CO2 in 2015. China and India represent 45% of the increase in global energy demand. The IEA estimates that demand will rise to 55% by 2030, more than half of that increase will correspond to both countries. That year expected that China imported more than 116 million barrels of crude oil a day.

Countries around the world must invest 22 billion dollars in infrastructure to cope with the pace of demand. Despite everything, there are no guarantees that these investments are realized and the ability and willingness of major oil and gas producers to carry them out are uncertain. If forecasts, emissions of greenhouse gases are met 57%, will that be responsible, at 75%, in developing countries can grow. Even if governments opt for ecological policies, the IEA calculates that these gases in the atmosphere will increase by 25%. The increase in global energy demand will take place despite the high prices of oil and the gas, which affects directly to the health of the global economy. Coal will become an important alternative resource. However, before the prices of fossil fuels, concern for security of supply and environmental considerations, improved expectations regarding nuclear power, which could get a decrease in CO2 emissions in a cost-effective way. Current energy consumption trends are not sustainable and pose the need for new policies that improve energy efficiency and curb the rampant demand and the growth of emissions in the short term. Promoting alternative energies and make more efficient use fuels are some of the measures proposed by the IEA, but the realization of the policies to adopt encounter difficulties due to the urgency requiring, the magnitude of the problems to be solved and the need for international support. Energy is part of sustainable development and new policies must strike a balance between the three dimensions of this development: energy security, economic development and the protection of the environment.