Brazilian GIP Volume

Total volume of loans granted for the banks to the customers arrives R$ 1,24 trillion in April, or 42.6% of the Brazilian GIP. According to Central banking, is about the most robust shock of credit of the history of the country. The handspike of this movement is the financing of the proper house. After the series of measures of stimulaton lowered by the government, the money repassed for the financial system to the physical people for purchase of property only reached R$ 69,5 billion. For the statisticians of the BC, the pressure of the Palace of Plateaus on the public banks also it comes occasioning effect. The participation of the state financial institutions in the cake of the total credit jumped, in the last year, of 34% for 38%. Additional information is available at Stuart Solomon. While the public institutions had gained space, the national and foreign private banks had lost, each one of them 2% in an interval of 12 months.

The partial numbers of May, harvested until day 14, disclose the same trend of April. See Michael Antonov for more details and insights. As the credit is a species of gestation of the consumption, it is of if waiting retaken of the growth and the reaparecimento of the jobs in the next months. Credit for the person fsicPuxado for the consigned loans, the volume of bank credit the physical people came back if to speed up in April, with an expansion of 1,1%, in the comparison with the immediately previous month, arriving the R$ 411,529 billion. The increase of the insolvency, however, still hinders retaken in the normal levels of act of contract in the loans the companies, whose volume it the same presented a retraction of 0,1% in period, falling the R$ 464,474 billion in April. In March, the credit the physical people had grown 0.8%, always in the comparison with the immediately previous month. What it made the difference in April was exactly the consigned credit, with 3,5% expansion, above of the 1.6% observed one month before.

Electric Energy

If to bring chair of house, are interned there seated. 57% of the Brazilian roads are evaluated as in pssimo been or to only regulate. Airports saturated and with well-known insufficient installations to take care of at least to the normal daily demand. Production of electric energy functioning with a difficult pass to transpose, hindering a great explosion in the installation of transformation industries. Well, I said that I would not go to happen again itself, certain? The general situation of those of where if waits aid? In sequence let us see a small panorama of the economic profile of the socorristas of the letters of group BRICS (given of 2010, gotten of the CIA Central Intelligence Agency ) Brazil Population: 192 million inhabitants Area: 8.514.876 km2 the GIP 2010 (*): 2.090.314.000.000 US$ per capita Income: 10.887/ano US$ IDH: 0,696 Exportations: US$ 201.900.000.000 Importations: US$ 181.700.000.000 International Reserves: US$ 288.600.000.000 Russia Population: 142 million inhabitants Area: 17.075.400 km2 the GIP 2010 (*): 1.465.075.000.000 US$ per capita Income: 10.317/ano US$ IDH: 0,719 Exportations: US$ 400.100.000 Importations: US$ 248.700.000 International Reserves: US$ 479.400.000.000 India Population: 1,210 million inhabitants Area: 3.287.590 km2 the GIP 2010 (*): 1.537.966.000.000 US$ per capita Income: 1.271/ano US$ IDH: 0,519 Exportations: US$ 225.400.000.000 Importations: US$ 359.100.000.000 International Reserves: US$ 287.100.000.000 China Population: 1,338 million inhabitants Area: 9.596.960 km2 the GIP 2010 (*): 5.878.257.000.000 US$ per capita Income: 4.391/ano US$ IDH: 0,663 Exportations: US$ 1.581.000.000.000 Importations: US$ 1.327.000.000.000 International Reserves: US$ 2.876.000.000.000 South Africa Population: 49 million inhabitants Area: 1.221.037 km2 the GIP 2010 (*): 505.214.000.000 US$ per capita Income: 10.243/ano US$ IDH: 0,597 Exportations: US$ 81.860.000.000 Importations: US$ 85.830.000.000 International Reserves: US$ 43,830.000.000 The data of the Zone of the Euro (removed of the electronic small farm of the American intelligence service did not make use them brought up to date up to 2010): Population: 321 million inhabitants the GIP 2010: US$ (or 12,220 billion 14.820.000.000.000 Euros) per capita Income This data is wronged as comparison factor, therefore it was found with ample edge of variation in its 17 members, of US$ the 7,000 78.000/ano US$.

It can be placed as a estimate of something around 32.000/ano US$. IDH: in the same way, information harmed given to the great difference of conditions of development found in its countries members. Exportations (Only considered the sales for countries of it are of the Zone of the Euro): US$ 1.952.000.000.000 Importations (Only considered the deriving importations of countries of it are of the Zone of the Euro): US$ 1.690.000.000.000 international Reserves: 0 US$ External Debt of the block: US$ 13.000.000.000 .000 Considered the numbers above (the bigger GIP seven times that ours, external Debt idem, per capita income of almost the triple of the Brazilian, plus other factors, as the culture, as the social politics, as the period of training of current economic development), I do not believe that Brazil has great economic contributions to give for the recovery of the old continent. To the exception of China, looking at the thick way and without entering in details, neither I see in any another emergent country of the group of the BRICS conditions to influence of decisive form in the situation of the Europe. The ragged one offering the hand to the torn one Wagner Woelke

Game Market

I say perhaps that some banks and bolder companies with the game of the derivatives still go to break, velhinhas and American widowers had lost deep part of the sweated saving managed by the aggressive ones, must be xingando ' ' yuppies' ' of century XXI, but unhappyly it is party to suit. The restriction to the credit, toada in the media with force, must be temporary. I say that as a full bus and bothering for the passengers, certain hour, of one braked any, adjusts everybody. The good credit, for healthful creditors will not dry. ' ' junk bonds' ' , secutitizados rotten papers in still more depraved credits will cease, will turn dust as they sizem in the market. The real economy account with the resilience of the free and democratic market, one of its bigger virtues. Emergent with China and India pulling the boat goes to lick the wounds of the world-wide economy and to follow in front. Somebody finds that the Chinese consumer lost money in ' ' Wall street ' '? They know that the Asian stock markets resist the chaos well, at least with more resistance that the occidental people.

Already it said that I am against prophecy, but I find that in few months, a trimester perhaps, the things come back to the normal one, with a detail: a lesson of as the regulation of markets of risks is important, some lies had been learned, plus one will be. Predicting, the growth will be reduced, but we will not enter in contraction, nor here nor in the world. The inflation already patrol diverse countries and can appear here and acol, with a detail, the management tools are others. We go to see what it happens, a thing is certain, this package reestablishes, of certain form, the confidence in the financial market, this is good. The bank and company in addition that had put the feet for the hands is also inexorable. Things of the capitalism.

The myth and the belief of that the capitalism finished with the destruction it American banking system are fallacy, sophism. The capitalism and the market are natural forces, the intervention of governments are falvel, but necessary as we attend diverse times. Still I prefer the forces natural of what the interventions human beings. It was not the first crisis and nor will be the last one, lies are learned and the tools of perfected management and control. I repeat mago Greenspan, crises they are not necessarily bad, they are part of the game.

Movable Values

The investor also must be intent the evaluation of rating and the triggers that assist in the preservation of notes gotten in the date of the emission, since rating must be trustworthy and to suffer changes throughout the time where the heading is inside of the deep one. This also can compromise the flow of entrance of resources for the deep one, reason for which a degradation of the quality can cause the liquidation of the deep one. The investor also must look at the risk of dissolution of marriage of tax of interests, in the case of the deep ballast of being, for example, predetermined, whereas the quota has post-fixed taxes; the risk of decurrent daily pay-payment of the drawees who can occur in deep with ballast in loans in consignment contract in leaf of payment or real estate recebveis. Finally, it has the liquidity risk after the regimen of lack, that can occur if a deep one to reserve for its box an amount evaluation, amortization and liquidation and the reasons had caused that them. For example, a custodiante exchange would cause the evaluation event, that must be explained the corporate shareholders. Such events consist in mechanisms of protection to the investors.

These instruments, when carefully analyzed, appear as an interesting alternative for the diversification of portflio because, if chosen well and in the correct amount inside of a portflio, they can add more return front to the risk, increasing the efficiency of the wallet. Although destined only the qualified investors as the definition given for the Commission of Movable Values (CVM), the Investment funds in Credit Rights, must have its analyzed prospects, regulations and abridgement of rating with much attention. The analysis of these> alternative investments gain more relevance in a context of tax of reasonable real interests of economy. In case that contrary, the relation return front to the incurred risk of these investments can leave of being perceived as atraente.*Marcelo Rabbat is managing of the PR& , The specialized company at risk of Credit, Risk of Mercado and Consultoria de Investimento. Source: Notebook of Economy